000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 12N108W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 79W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 20N and west of 115W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. Locally fresh winds are likely occurring near Punta Eugenia. Meanwhile, NW swell is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the waters around Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are 2 to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread medium haze across the Oaxaca offshore waters near the coast and light haze across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside below 8 ft by Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase to moderate to briefly fresh tonight through Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the entire Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Fri. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of 10N through Mon night, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 12N108W. Fresh to strong SW winds near the low are converging into the monsoon trough between 106W and 110W. Combined seas in this area are 7 to 8 ft. The convergent SW winds are also supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to 200 nm of the low, from 09N to 15N between 105W and 111W. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1035 mb high pressure centered near 37N142W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ along 05N and west of 110W. Scatterometer data indicated a small area of strong winds from 10N to 14N and W of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is evident north of 28N between 120W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted W of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by Thu. Winds and seas will subside by tonight as a result along with showers and thunderstorm activity weakening along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja California. This will continue through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area. $$ AReinhart