143 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220323
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to a 1007 mb low pressure near 12N106W to 08N120W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of 
the monsoon trough between 95W and 105W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 15N and
west of 110W. 

Earlier ship observations indicated moderate to fresh NW winds
persist off Baja California, between strong high pressure west of
the area over the northeast Pacific, and lower pressure over
central Mexico. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft continues north of Punta
Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the waters around
Guadalupe Island. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere off
Mexico with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in open waters due to a mix
of NW and SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has 
spread light to medium haze across the offshore waters over 
southern Mexico which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will continue through Sat night. NW swell moving 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will persist 
into Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase to 
moderate to briefly fresh Wed night as low pressure temporarily 
deepens over the Colorado River Valley, then again Sat night as a
dissipating cold front moves into the region. Light to medium 
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could 
reduce visibilities over the southern Mexico offshore waters 
through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms continues to impact
the offshore waters off Costa Rica beyond 120 nm, due in part to
converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon
trough. Moderate SW winds are evident south of 10N, with light
and variable winds north of 10N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft 
primarily in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires 
persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south
as Nicaragua, which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Thu. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to 
locally fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
persist south of 10N through the period, with light to gentle 
breezes north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by 
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over 
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The main features remains a 1007 mb low pressure area long the
monsoon trough trough near 11.5N106W. Fresh to strong SW winds
near the low are converging into the monsoon trough between 95W
and 105W. Combined seas in this area my be 7 to 9 ft. The
convergent SW winds are also supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough. 

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered 
near 40N144W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north
of 15N and west of 110W, and primarily fresh NE to E trade winds
from 10N to 20N west of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is
evident north of 28N between 115W and 135W. Combined seas are 7
to 9 ft in the area of fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of
135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low pressure area will weaken as it drifts
northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by Thu, 
allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly near the low 
pressure, and showers and thunderstorms activity to weaken along 
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken 
through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish 
slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja 
California. Little change is noted over the remainder of the 
area.

$$
Christensen