000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151424
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to 09N84W to 11N98W
to 05N129W. The ITCZ continues from 05N129W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N
between 77W and 106W, from 03N to 06N between 111W and 118W, and
from 07N to 10.5N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands,
reaching locally strong speeds off the coast of Cabo San Lucas.
Diminishing moderate to fresh gap winds are funneling through 
the mountain ranges of the Baja California peninsula into the 
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, and in the 2-4 ft range in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds, and moderate seas 
or less, will persist off the Baja California waters through this
week and into the upcoming weekend, pulsing to locally strong 
near Cabo San Lucas at night through Thu night. Pulsing moderate 
to locally fresh gap winds will push through the mountain 
passages of Baja California into the Gulf of California at night 
through much of the week. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open offshore 
waters of Mexico through late this week. Looking ahead, an area 
of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred nautical miles
to the south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this 
week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is 
possible as the low moves slowly to the west-northwest, remaining
south of the coast of Mexico through early next week. This may 
increase the winds and seas across that area toward the end of 
the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are both north of and south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of the monsoon
trough, and in the 4-6 ft range south of the monsoon trough.
Active convection persists from offshore Colombia to the waters
south of Costa Rica, with the potential for locally higher winds
and seas there.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast 
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of 
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell 
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 5-6 ft 
through the remainder of the week, building to up to 7 ft 
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several 
hundred nautical miles to the south or southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late this week. This may increase the winds and seas
in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward the 
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N and west of 118W. Seas in this area are in the 5-7 ft 
range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 
Gentle to locally moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough where seas are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 7 ft south 
of the Equator.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone north of the 
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W through the forecast period.
Winds will freshen in the tradewind zone north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W later in the week. The NE wind waves generated from
the fresh trades will mix with a set of SW swell to increase 
seas to near 8 ft by the end of the week through the weekend. A 
set of northerly swell may approach 30N this weekend, possibly 
building seas to around 8 ft north of 28N. Looking ahead, an area 
of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred nautical miles
to the south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this 
week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is 
possible as the low moves slowly to the west-northwest, remaining
south of the coast of Mexico through early next week. This may 
increase the winds and seas across that area toward the end of 
the week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky