000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1008 mb low pres near 11N101W to 07N118W. The ITCZ
stretches from 07N118W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 04N to 13N and between 97W and
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge over the North Pacific extends
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over NW
Mexico support moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters
of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere,
including the Gulfs of California and Tehuantepec, light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and
moderate seas or less, will prevail off the Baja California 
waters through the middle of next week. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across 
the open offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of next 
week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the region, resulting in
moderate to occasionally fresh winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and
south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft are found between Colombia and the 
Galapagos Islands, while seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected 
south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. 
Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support 
seas of 6-7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through early Mon. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate seas 
of 6 ft or less. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure system centered well north of Hawaii 
continues to dominate the the remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge 
and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to
fresh easterly winds from 05N to 22N and west of 120W. Seas in 
these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8
ft are found south of the monsoon trough and between 95W and 
125W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas are 
expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W 
of 120W through Sun, before seas subside slightly through early 
next week. 

$$
Delgado