000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N94W to 12N108W to low pres 1011 mb near 10.5N114W. The ITCZ extends from 10N115W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 86W and extends into the SW Caribbean, and from 03.5N to 08.5N between 117W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 87W and 103W, and from 02N to 05N between 127W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge southeastward over the offshore waters of Baja California and to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure of 1009 mb is nearly stationary just offshore of southern California, and extends a trough northward along the entire coast of California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low pressure is supporting strong to gale-force N to N-NW winds across the near and offshore waters of California, becoming fresh across the far outer waters of Baja California Norte, to the NW of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across the Baja waters, moderate NW to N winds prevail, except locally fresh surrounding the coast at Cabo San Lucas. The winds offshore of California continue to generate NW swell moving into the region. Seas across most of the Baja waters are 6 to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the SW N of 27N, where areas of westerly gaps winds have developed overnight. Winds are from the NW S of 27N. Seas along the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, highest at the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the W to NW, and become onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure well NW of the local area will shift NE throughout the week. This will lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula waters through today, with small areas of locally fresh winds developing near the coasts during the afternoon and evening, becoming gentle to moderate winds Thu through Fri. Fresh NW winds will persist across the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe Island today. NW swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia through Thu evening. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the near and offshore waters between the Colombian coast and NW Costa Rica, and extend into the SW Caribbean. This active weather is occurring about the monsoonal circulation becoming seasonally established across the region, and is producing frequent, strong gusty winds, and moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America offshore waters N of 09N, winds remain light and variable and seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 07N, through Thu, which will feed into the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms currently E of 90W. This active weather will shift slowly westward through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas in S swell. Otherwise, new southerly swell entering the region today will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are north of 28N between 120W and 125W, while gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of 130W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell, except to 10 ft along 30N and E of 125W. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 122W, moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Sun, as high pressure N of the area drifts northeastward. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected across the area of trade winds through Sun. NW swell across the Baja California Norte waters will build through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W today through Thu afternoon. The seas there will subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat. $$ Stripling