000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132323
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 15N. Combined seas are 
reaching as high as 11 ft, with a plume of seas in excess of 8 
ft reaching SW to near 08N104W in NE swell. Ongoing high pressure
north of the area will continue to funnel these gales through 
early this evening, then drop to near gale or strong speeds 
tonight, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas to 11 ft 
should drop below below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests 
transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend 
should be aware of this ongoing gap wind event and take the 
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 
affected waters. 

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 06N86W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N86W to 06N100W to 08N104W then resumes near
06N111W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident within 120 nm off the coasts of Colombia and NW 
Ecuador, from 03N to 08N between 91W and 103W, and from 05N to 
13N between 102W and 111W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Moderate SW winds are ongoing over the northern Gulf of 
California, associated with a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold 
front approaching Baja California Norte from the west. Outside 
of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds persist 
across the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate NW winds
from the entrance of the Gulf of California to the Colima
offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft off Baja California
with a component of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 
to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh SW
winds in the norhern Gulf of California will reach fresh to
strong speeds tonight as a weak cold front moves across the 
waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun. This wil allow 
the continuation of fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California through early Sun morning. In the wake of the cold 
front, building high pressure should cause fresh to strong NW 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun night into late 
Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate the 
Baja Peninsula offshores through Thu evening. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of 
Nicaragua downwind to about 101W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 
10 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from this 
gap wind event extend into the offshore waters of El Salvador 
and Guatemala. Fresh to strong N gap winds and seas to 8 ft preavil
over the Gulf of Panama as well, extending as far south as 03N. 
Light and variable winds prevail across the rest of the Central 
American and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the Papagayo 
and Panama regions, seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-
gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 
Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into Tue evening.
The same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to 
strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next 
several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue to propagate across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge north of 15N is weakening and shifting east ahead of a
pair of cold fronts moving through the waters north of 23N and 
west of 120W. Trade wind flow farther south into the tropics is 
diminishing as the ridge weakens, leaving an area of 8 ft seas in
NE swell from 06N to 17W west of 137W. Another area of NW swell 
is moving south of 30N following the fronts and supporting seas
in the 8-12 ft. Meanwhile, as discussed above, NE swell of 8 to 
10 ft is emerging out of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching as
far west as 101W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft 
combined seas dominate elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold fronts will weaken while moving 
eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 
through Sun, then dissipate. Seas to 12 ft associated with the
fronts will slowly diminish on Sun. A large NW to N swell will 
then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south 
of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the
equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause 
combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added 
to this mix will include a component of shorter period seas due 
to wind waves to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N
to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and as
far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Ramos