000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is 
expected in the Gulf of Tehunatepec starting early on Thu as high
pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will 
be moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to 
increase to minimal gale-force speeds by Thu morning. North to 
northeast winds will increase further to a maximum speed of 40 kt
Thu night into Fri along with building seas expected to peak to 
around 16 or 17 ft. Winds then will diminish to minimal gale-
force by early Sat and below gale force by Sat night. Large seas 
generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away 
from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as 
far west as 104W by Fri night. Marine interests transiting across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat should be aware of 
this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to 
avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N90W to
06N110W. The ITCZ continues to 06N110W to 04N125W and to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 10N between 81W and 88W. Similar convective
activity is observed along the coasts of Colombia and Panama 
from 06N to 08N E of 79W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Mostly
moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters 
of Baja California. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. In the 
Gulf of California, moderate to fresh northwest winds are over 
the central and southern sections while light to gentle northerly  
winds are over the northern section. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the
strongest winds and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle west to
northwest winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed long period northwest and 
southwest swell. Seas have subsided to 4 to 6 ft over the waters
surrounding the Revillagigedo Islands. Hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires may be along and just offshore the Mexican 
coast between Cabo Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, high pressure over the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California will begin to weaken and shift eastward on 
Thu in response to a cold front that will be approaching from the
W. Winds offshore Baja California will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds through Thu, then will become light and gentle 
winds Fri through Sat ahead of the aforementioned cold front 
forecast to reach 30N120W by Sat night. In the Gulf of California,
winds will generally become light and variable on Thu throughout.
On Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf are forecast to
become fresh in speeds, south to southwest in direction, then 
increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night prior to the 
approach of the cold front. Gentle to locally moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. The next gale-
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to 
begin Thu morning. It will likely persist through Sat. Seas are 
expected to peak to around 16 or 17 ft with this upcoming event. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Mainly gentle to moderate Ne to E winds are noted in the Gulf of
Papagayo and downwind to about 88W. Light and variable winds are
in the Gulf of Panama. Generally gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are north of the Equator while light to gentle southeast 
winds are present between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently over 
most of the Central American offshore waters. Winds and seas may 
be higher in and near this activity as it is expected to stay 
active through at least Thu. Hazy conditions observed along and 
just offshore northern Central America, northward of northern 
Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, winds will increase in the Papagayo region to 
fresh to strong speeds Thu night along with seas building to 8 to
9 ft during Fri. There is a possibility for these winds to reach
near gale-force late Fri night into early Sat with seas building
to 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will develop
in the Gulf of Panama Fri night, then pulse through early Sun. Seas
with these winds will build up to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will propagate across the outer SW offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador by Fri evening. Abundant moisture 
drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind flow is 
prevalent across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia. It is expected to favor the development of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over these waters through at 
least Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb located well to the north of the 
discussion area near 38N134W is the main feature influencing the
weather pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 
about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds 
mainly from 05N to 14N west of about 130W, and 05N to 09N between
123W and 130W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Mostly fresh
northeast winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere 
under the influence of the associated ridge.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will shift 
eastward through Thu as it weakens with the approach of a cold 
front that is expected to push south into the far northwest part 
of the area on Fri. As a result, the area of trades over the
west central waters will diminish in areal coverage. Seas 
produced by these winds will also subside going into the end of 
the week. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and a new set
of northwest swell will follow the front. Seas peaking to around
14 ft are currently forecast for the waters N of 29N and W of
132W on Sat.

$$
GR