000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090342
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 09 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb over northwest 
Colombia, southwest to west to 08N83W and to 07N93W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ 
and continues to 05N105W to 05N122W to 03N130W and to beyond 
04N140W. Recently developed numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 87W and
90W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 90W and 93W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 95W and 102W and within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 102W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W and 125W, and 
within 60 nm either side of the trough between 80W and 84W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Latest
ASCAT satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong northwest 
to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft north of Punta Eugenia
due to long-period northwest to north swell and 6 to 9 ft south 
of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, southwest to west
gentle to moderate winds are over the southern part while fresh 
west to northwest winds are over the central part and gentle to
moderate southwest to west winds are over the northern part of
the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft are over the northern and southern 
sections and 4 to 6 ft seas are over the central section. Light 
to gentle west to northwest winds are across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to a mixture 
of long-period southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo Islands due to NW 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California for the next few days. Fresh to strong northwest winds
offshore Baja California will diminish to mostly moderate speeds
on Tue. Northwest swell will propagate to the offshore waters 
west of Baja California through early Tue, then subside 
afterward. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate 
northwest winds will prevail through Thu. These winds will then 
become fresh to locally strong, south to southwest in direction, 
on Fri and Fri night over the northern part of the Gulf as a cold
front approaches from the west. Gentle to locally moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Looking 
ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will likely 
persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 16 ft 
with this upcoming event. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong east winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region and west from there to near 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with 
these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are south of the 
Gulf of Panama west of 79W and light variable winds are east of 
79W. Generally light to gentle southwest to west winds are
elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a long-period south to 
southwest swell, except slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft over 
the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Winds and 
seas could be higher in and near this activity. Hazy conditions 
observed along and just offshore northern Central America, 
northward of northern Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced
by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds 
will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue morning,
then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period 
south to southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. 
Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds,
with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on
Fri. These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into 
early Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in 
the Gulf of Panama with seas likely building up to 7 ft. Abundant
moisture drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind 
flow is expected to persist across the offshore waters of Costa 
Rica, Panama and Colombia supporting the development of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over those waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb that is analyzed well to the northeast 
of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the 
weather pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 
about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds 
mainly from about from 09N to 20N W of 120W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft
with these winds based on latest altimeter data. Mostly fresh 
northeast winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north 
of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The 
high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts
eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trade 
winds over the central and western waters will gradually diminish
in areal coverage. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the
far northwest waters on Fri.

$$
Aguirre