000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from northern Colombia westward to 07N92W. The ITCZ continues from 07N92W to 04N120W to beyond 03N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 04N to 09N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted from 02N to 10N between 90W and 110W, and from 10N to 13N between 88W and 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Its associated gradient is producing fresh to strong northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia and fresh northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia and 6 to 9 ft south of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are south of 28N while light to gentle northwest winds are north of 28N. Seas with these winds are 1 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are over the waters between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands, with seas of 5 to 7 ft due to a long-period northwest swell just west of the mentioned islands. Light to gentle west to northwest winds are elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft due to a mixture of long-period southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the offshore forecast waters of Baja California for the next few days. Fresh northwest winds across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will diminish after they spread southward to the offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. Northwest swell will propagate to the offshore waters west of Baja California through early Tue, then subside afterward. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail through Thu. These winds will then become fresh to strong, south to southwest in direction, on Fri and Fri night over the northern part of the Gulf as a cold front approaches from the west. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin early on Thu. It will likely persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to around 15 ft with this upcoming event. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong east winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo region and west from there to near 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Hazy conditions observed along and just offshore northern Central America are due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Tue afternoon, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period south to southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region early on Fri. These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri night into early Sat while at the same time fresh northerly winds start in the Gulf of Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure associated to a 1032 mb high center that is analyzed well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the weather pattern over these waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from about from 08N to 18N W of 126W and from 07N to 12N between 115W and 126W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these winds. Mostly fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trade winds over the central and western waters will gradually diminish in areal coverage. $$ GR