000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080347
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 08 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from low pressure OF 1006 MB over northwest
Colombia, southwestward to 08N78W to 07N85W to 08N90W and to 
06N98W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N116W to 05N125W and 
to 06N135W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen within 270 nm south of trough between 80W and 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 90 nm south of trough between 
86W and 91W, within 60 nm south of trough between 91W and 95W and 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Its 
associated gradient is producing fresh northwest winds north of 
Punta Eugenia and moderate northwest winds south of Punta 
Eugenia. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell north of Punta 
Eugenia and 6 to 9 ft south of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of 
California, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
south of 28N while light to gentle northwest winds are north of 
28N per the latest ASCAT satellite data pass over that part of 
the Gulf. Seas with these winds are 1 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate
northwest winds are over the waters between Los Cabos and Las 
Marias Islands, with seas of 5 to 7 ft due to a long-period 
northwest swell just west of the mentioned islands. Light to 
gentle west to northwest winds are elsewhere across the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft due to 
a mixture of long-period southwest and northwest swell. Seas are
6 to 8 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo Clarion 
Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California for the next few days. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro tonight into Mon as the pressure gradient 
tightens across the area and a reinforcing set of northwest  
swell arrives. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to 
moderate northwest winds will prevail through Thu, then winds 
will veer to the S and increase to fresh speeds across the 
northern part of the Gulf as a cold front approaches from the W. 
Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next gale-
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to 
begin early on Thu. It will likely persist through Sat. Seas are 
expected to peak to 13 or 14 ft with this upcoming event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. 
Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, 
except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador due to 
a long-period south to southwest swell.

Hazy conditions along and just offshore northern Central America
are due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires. are 
still noticed over coastal areas of northern Central America.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds 
will continue in the Gulf pf Papagayo region through early Tue 
afternoon, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through 
Thu. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas due to a 
long-period south to southwest swell are expected elsewhere 
through Thu. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to 
strong speeds, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo 
region early on Fri. These winds may reach near gale-force late 
Fri night into early Sat while at the same time fresh northerly 
winds start in the Gulf of Panama. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure associated to a 1034 mb high center that is
analyzed well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is 
the main feature influencing the weather pattern over this part 
of the area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds 
mainly from about 10N to 22N west of 125W based on the latest 
available ASCAT satellite data passes. A recent altimeter 
satellite data pass indicated seas to 12 ft with these winds. 
This altimeter reading was for a location near 13N135W. In 
addition, ship with call ID "3FLT5" report combined seas of 11 ft
near 14N134W at 00Z. Gentle to moderate mostly northeast winds 
along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain 
in control of the weather pattern across most of the waters north 
of the ITCZ and west of 110W during the next several days. The 
high pressure will weaken slightly through late Tue as it shifts
eastward. As a result, the large area of fresh to strong trades 
over the west-central waters will gradually diminish in areal 
coverage. 
 
$$
Aguirre