000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070942
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia to 07N78W to 06N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N95W to 05N110W to 07N131W, then resumes W of a surface trough
at 05N137W to beyond 04N140W. The surface trough extends from 
07N133W to 01N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N to 08N E of 94W, from 03N to 09N between 109W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The associated pressure gradient between a surface ridge 
extending to the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and
lower pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW 
winds along the peninsula offshore zones as well as along the 
Gulf of California. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in long period NW swell 
over the waters N of Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California 
seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds
are elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with 
seas of 3 to 4 ft in mixed NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds and seas will 
diminish some today, then expect fresh to strong NW winds and 
building seas on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area, and a reinforcing set of NW swell arrives. In the Gulf of 
California, fresh NW to N winds are forecast to diminish to 
moderate speeds this morning. Mainly gentle to locally moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. 
Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region 
is expected early Thu morning through Fri night. Minimal gale 
conditions are possible. 

Of note: Climatologically, the first gale-force gap wind event 
in the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final 
gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. 
Occasionally, gale force gap wind events may occur as early as 
September, and as late as May.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft within these winds.
Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama while light
to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3
to 5 ft, except to 6 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador 
due to SW swell. Light concentration of smoke from agricultural 
fires has been noticed over coastal areas of northern Central 
America for the past several days.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Papagayo region through at least Tue, with seas 
in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate NE winds will pulse in the
region of Papagayo the remainder forecast period. Light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast
elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from a strong 1036 mb high pressure located near
36N154WN SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between this system and lower pressure in the vicinity 
of the ITCZ supports a large area of fresh to strong trade winds 
mainly from 07N to 25N W of 116W. Recent altimer data confirmed 
seas of 8-12 ft in the presence of these winds and mixed N and 
NE long period swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of
110W through the next several days. The high pressure will move 
eastward and weaken some by Mon. As a result, the large area of 
fresh to strong trades over the west-central waters will 
gradually diminish in areal coverage through Fri before subsiding.
 
$$
Ramos