000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant northerly swell event: An extensive set of large NW swell will continue to propagate SE of 30N through tonight, with seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters north of 22N and east of 135W. Seas will peak to around 15 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W from about late this morning into the afternoon. Wave periods will be mainly 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous seas are expected during this event, with dangerous conditions possible along the Baja California Norte coast tonight through the weekend. Refer to your local national weather service for more details on surf conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this significant northerly swell event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia SW to across Panama near 07N81W and to 06N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to 07N110W to 07N119W. The ITCZ then resumes to the west of a surface trough near 06N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 115W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A cold front extends from 32N114W to 26N128W preceded by a dissipating cold front from 29N116W to 24N127W. These fronts intersect a broad high pressure ridge that extends into the outer offshore waters and to 13N. Winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro are moderate to fresh, from the N to NW in direction, and seas are in the 5-8 ft range. A pre-frontal trough extends along the Gulf of California and is supporting fresh to near gale-force SW winds and seas to 8 ft in the northern gulf from 29N to 31N. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing in the southern Gulf of California due to the surface trough. In the region of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N winds reach to 14N and support seas to 6 ft. Mostly light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong speeds through early this afternoon. Expect fresh to near gale-force SW to W gap winds across the northern Gulf of California today and tonight associated with the passage of a cold front moving through Baja California Norte this morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in behind the front over the central and southern Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW to N winds developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning tonight through the weekend. Very large NW swell is expected to accompany the front off Baja California through tonight, gradually subsiding on Sat and Sun. A reinforcing set of NW swell may impact the Baja California waters early next week, but is not expected to attain significant event status. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters as well as the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these waters are 3 to 5 ft due to mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific waters, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region today through early next week. Seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will build slightly tonight through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A cold front extends from 32N114W to 26N128W preceded by a dissipating cold front from 29N116W to 24N127W. These fronts intersect a broad high pressure ridge that extends into the outer offshore waters of Baja California and covers the waters N of 13N. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are behind the fronts along with 8 to 14 ft seas in NW swell. A large area of fresh to strong NE winds is to the SW of these fronts from 07N to 26N and W of 123W with 8-12 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the cold fronts will merge then quickly reach the far NE part of the area today and sweep southward through Sat while its western segment begins to weaken. As this takes place, the areal coverage of the trade wind will decrease through Sat. As mentioned above, an extensive set of very large NW swell will continue to propagate SE through the northern waters through tonight. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun. Overall marine conditions are expected to slowly improve from late Sun into early next week. $$ Ramos