000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant northerly swell event: An extensive set of large NW swell is forecast to propagate southeast of 30N late tonight through Fri night, with seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters north of 24N and east of 135W. Seas will peak to around 15 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W from about late Fri morning into the afternoon. Wave periods will be mainly 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous seas are expected during this event, with dangerous conditions possible along the Baja California Norte coast Fri night through the weekend. Refer to your local national weather service for more details on surf conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this significant northerly swell event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia southwestward to across Panama near 07N81W and to 06N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to 06N105W to 07N120W. The ITCZ then resumes to the west of a surface trough near 03N127W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 115W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A cold front extends from 30N118W SW to near 24N128W where it starts to dissipate. A secondary reinforcing cold front is following in close behind extending from 30N121W to 27N127W. These fronts intersect a broad high pressure ridge that extends to the outer offshore waters boundary. Winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro are moderate to fresh, northwest to north in direction, and seas are in the 5-7 ft range. A pre- frontal trough along the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to near gale-force SW winds in the northern gulf N of 30N and seas to 5 ft. Mostly light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for a small plume of fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong speeds late tonight through early Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to near gale-force SW to W gap winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight into Fri associated with a cold front that will be moving through Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in behind the front over the central and southern Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW to N winds developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning Fri night through the weekend. Very large NW swell is expected to accompany the front off Baja California tonight through Fri night, gradually subsiding on Sat and Sun. A reinforcing set of NW swell may impact the Baja California waters early next week, but is not expected to attain significant event status. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters as well as the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these waters are 3 to 5 ft due to mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific waters, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region Fri through early next week. Seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will build slightly Fri night through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A cold front extends from 30N118W SW to near 24N128W where it starts to dissipate. A secondary reinforcing cold front extends from 30N121W to 27N127W. These fronts intersect a broad high pressure ridge that covers the waters N of 17N and extends eastward to the outer Baja California offshore waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind the fronts, as well as to the south of the front to near 06N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Northwest swell is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft behind the fronts, while similar seas are across the waters from the equator to 25N and west of about 130W due to the trade winds combining with old, remnant northerly swell. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold fronts will merge then quickly reach the far NE part of the area on Fri and sweep southward through Sat while its western segment begins to weaken. As this takes place, the areal coverage of the trade wind will decrease through Sat. As mentioned above, an extensive set of very large NW swell will propagate through the northern waters starting late tonight, and continue to propagate SE through Fri night. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun. Overall marine conditions are expected to slowly improve from late Sun into early next week. $$ Ramos