000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant northerly swell event: A set of large NW swell is forecast to propagate SE of 30N late Thu night through Fri night, with seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters N of 24N and E of 135W. Seas will peak around 16 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W late Fri morning into the afternoon. Wave periods will be mainly 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous seas are expected during this event, with dangerous conditions possible along the Baja California Norte coast Fri night through the weekend. Refer to your local national weather service for more details on surf conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this significant northerly swell event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 07N89W. The ITCZ extends from 07N89W to 05N105W to 02N125W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 119W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for detail on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A NW to SE ridge extends along the outer offshore waters boundary. Fresh to strong NW winds spread from the central through S Gulf of California due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough along the NW coast of mainland Mexico. Winds elsewhere N of 18N are moderate to fresh with seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Fresh to near gale-force N winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas building there to 7 to 10 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere S of 18N along with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California tonight. Farther south, strong to near-gale force winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening through Thu afternoon, and again late Thu night through Fri afternoon. Expect fresh to strong W gap winds across the N Gulf of California Thu night into Fri associated with a cold front moving into S California and Baja California Norte. W to NW winds may be near gale-force north of 29N Fri night. Fresh to strong NW winds will filter in behind the front in the central and S Gulf of California on Sat with fresh to strong NW-N winds developing near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward beginning Fri night through the weekend. Very large NW swell should accompany the front off Baja California Thu night through Fri night, gradually subsiding on Sat and Sun. A reinforcing set of NW swell may impact the Baja California waters early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, locally moderate near Guatemala, along with 3-5 ft. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days over the Central America and equatorial Pacific waters, except pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region Fri through early next week. Seas will be mainly 3 to 5 ft, building offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri night through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for detail on an upcoming significant northerly swell event. A weak cold front is over the NW waters extending from 30N133W to 26N140W. Otherwise, a NW to SE ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong winds are behind the front, as well as from 08N to 20N to the W of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft are building in behind the front, while similar seas are across the waters from 04N to 20N to the W of 110W due to the trade winds combining with old, remnant northerly swell. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak cold front will reach from N Baja California to 21N140W by Fri morning while dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will occur tonight and tomorrow before diminishing Fri. As the front pushes southeastward into our waters, this will reduce the N-S pressure gradient and diminish the extent of the fresh to strong trades, which will continue through the weekend. A very large NW swell will cross our N border Thu night and continue advecting southeastward. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun. Overall conditions should improve somewhat early next week. $$ Lewitsky