000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030828
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of western Panama near
08N82W to 06N93W. The ITCZ extends from 06N93W to 05N120W to
02N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 07N to 13N between 110W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE ridge extends across the outer offshore waters
boundary. Fresh to strong NW winds spread from the central 
through southern Gulf of California to near and S of Cabo 
Corrientes due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and
a trough along the NW coast of mainland Mexico. Moderate to 
fresh winds prevail elsewhere from Michoacan NW, along with 6 to 
8 ft seas in decaying NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to
7 ft seas are elsewhere, locally fresh nearshore of Oaxaca.
 
For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to 
strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California 
and off Cabo Corrientes through tonight. NW swell off Baja 
California to the Revillagigedo Islands and off Cabo Corrientes 
will gradually subside today and tonight. Farther south, strong 
to near-gale force winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this evening through Thu, and Thu night through Fri.
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong westerly gap winds across 
the northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri associated 
with a cold front moving into southern California and Baja 
California Norte. Winds may be near gale-force N of 29N Fri
night. Fresh to strong winds will filter in behind the front in
the central and southern Gulf for the start of the weekend. New,
large NW swell may accompany the front off Baja California Thu 
through Sat night, with fresh to strong NW-N winds near shore 
from Cabo San Lazaro northward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters per
earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas
in primarily S-SW swell. Patchy smoke and haze may be limiting 
visibility slightly near the coast, mainly off El Salvador and 
Guatemala.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh winds in the 
Papagayo region may develop Fri through the upcoming weekend. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail for the next 
several days. Seas may build offshore Guatemala Thu and Thu night
due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, 3 to 5 
ft seas will prevail through the next several days, except 
building slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Island 
this weekend in new southerly swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The ridging 
combined with lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting a belt 
of fresh to strong trades from around 08N to 19N and west of 
110W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Combined seas in this 
area are 8 to 11 ft per recent altimeter data, aided by old 
northerly swell. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail 
elsewhere over the open waters, except freshening winds in the NW
waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere W of 105W, and 4 to 6 ft E 
of 105W.

For the forecast, the belt of fresh to strong trades just north 
of the ITCZ will persist through the end of the week, 
diminishing somewhat thereafter as the ridge weakens. These trades
will support 7 to 11 ft seas. A decaying cold front or remnant 
trough may move into the waters north of 25N and west of 130W
later today and tonight with fresh to strong winds behind it. A 
set of NW swell will arrive with or ahead of the boundary, 
building seas to 8 to 12 ft north of 20N and west of 130W through
the end of the week. Looking ahead, additional northerly swell 
may drop south of 30N by the end of the week into the weekend, 
with the potential to build seas to greater than 12 ft north of 
25N and east of 130W.
 
$$
Lewitsky