000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312034
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell: A cold front extends from 25N115W to
18N130W. Behind the front, a subsequent surface trough is
dropping S of 30N between 120W and 128W. Both features and
additional surface trough will move SE through the northern
waters over the next two days, accompanied by reinforcing sets of
northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater have spread S to
waters N of 23N between 116W and 133W, with peak seas around 17
ft near 30N125W. The swell height will start to gradually decay
tonight, with the waves with period 12 to 14 ft slowly subsiding
below 12 ft Mon. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur 
with these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of 
Baja California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf 
conditions. Please consult products from your national weather 
service for more details on conditions near the coast. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more details on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
06N77W to 03N84W. The ITCZ continues from 03N84W to 06N94W to
06N111W, then resumes from 05N114W to 04N138W. No significant 
convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for details on significant N
swell impacting waters offshore Baja California Norte. 

A cold front extends from the central Gulf of California to 
around 25N115W. Fresh to strong W winds are N of 30N in the 
northern Gulf of California, along with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds are across the remainder of the Gulf of 
California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
are behind the front from Punta Eugenia northward. Large NW 
swell as described above with seas of 8 to 14 ft is propagating 
through the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle to moderate 
winds under a weak ridge prevail across the remainder of the 
offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, however some
locally strong NW winds are developing offshore Cabo Corrientes,
where the pressure gradient is increasing. 

For the forecast, the cold front and subsequent surface troughs 
will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of
California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large
NW swell. This swell will likely generate very rough seas at the
outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. 
The swell will very gradually decay through early this week. 
Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with fresh to 
locally strong winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Mon night 
through Wed. Similar winds may develop in the central and 
southern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed night. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong SW winds are likely to develop in the 
northern Gulf of California Thu night. Also, near gale force 
northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night 
through Thu night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh gap winds are flowing across the gulfs of Papagayo and
Panama, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds
prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Papagayo through Tue morning. Fresh winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through early 
Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will 
prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
significant northerly swell over the northern waters.

A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending 
from 25N115W to 20N130W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N E of
128W. Associated significant NW-N swell continues to outrun the 
front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, 
the weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N 
of the region. Moderate trades prevail across the open waters 
away from the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A 1011 mb low 
pressure area is along a trough, embedded in the ITCZ near 
06N113W, but no significant convection is associated with these
features.

For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and 
associated large northerly swell mentioned above, weak trades
will gradually increase early this week as high pressure north of
the area builds. Trades may further increase to fresh to strong 
by the middle of the week. The aforementioned northerly swells 
will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters
N of the ITCZ early this week, then become focused across the 
fresh trades by mid-week.
 
$$
Konarik