000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell: A cold front extends from 30N116.5W to 22N130W to 22N140W. This front will be followed by subsequent surface troughs over the next couple of days and will be accompanied by reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater continue to spread southward across waters N of 25N between 119W and 137W with peak seas around 17 ft near 30N. This swell will continue to propagate as far south as 22N by Sun afternoon, and will peak around 19 ft near 30N tonight. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your national weather service for more details on conditions near the coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 04N84W. The ITCZ extends from 04N84W to 06N111W, then resumes from 05N114W to 02N140W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03.4S95W to 00N98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near the SW Arizona/California border to across Baja California Norte and beyond with a pre-frontal trough in the northern Gulf of California. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are N of 29.5N in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough, along with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are across the remainder of the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are both ahead of and behind the front from Punta Eugenia northward. Large NW swell as described above with seas of 8 to 14 ft is propagating into the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle to moderate winds under a weak ridge prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, except mixed with SW swell across the Tehuantepec zone. For the forecast, the cold front and subsequent surface troughs will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun night. The swell will very gradually decay through early next week. Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with fresh to strong winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Sun night through Wed. Similar winds will develop in the central and southern Gulf of California Tue night through Wed night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Thu night. Also, near gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo, with similar gap winds across the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from the Papagayo region northward, with seas to 7 ft SW of the Gulf of Panama, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through early Sun, then moderate to fresh through Tue morning. Seas will occasionally build to 8 ft there. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun, then weaker by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a significant northerly swell over the northern waters. A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending from 30N116.5W to 22N130W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 25N between 120W and 136W. Associated significant NW-N swell outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of the region. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters away from the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A 1010 mb low pressure area is along a trough, embedded in the ITCZ near 06.5N112W. Associated scattered moderate conveciton is within 120 nm in the W quadrant of the low. For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will continue to weaken and drift south through Sun, leading to weak tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. Trades may further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of next week. The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky