000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell: A cold front beginning to move into the 
Baja California Norte waters extends from 30N118W to 23N132W. 
This front will be followed by subsequent surface troughs over 
the next few days and will be accompanied by reinforcing sets of 
northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft and greater continue to spread 
southward across waters N of 25N between 120W and 139W. This 
swell will continue to propagate as far south as 22N by Sun while 
peaking around 19 ft near 30N tonight. Wave periods will be 12 
to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with 
these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja 
California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. 
Please consult products from your national weather service for 
more details on conditions near the coast. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
07N78W to 05N105W. A surface trough extends from 02N111W to 
10N109W. The ITCZ extends from 05N119W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 
85W and 95W and from 01N to 07N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the Baja California Norte offshore
waters, stretching from 30N118W to beyond 28N120W. Ahead of the
front, ASCAT depicted moderate to fresh winds are noted with
fresh to strong NW winds behind the front. In the Gulf of
California, fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf
with ASCAT showing moderate to fresh winds in the southern Gulf.
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the remainder of the 
waters with mainly light to gentle winds south of Punta Eugenia
to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a cold front and subsequent surface troughs 
will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of
California through Mon, bringing fresh to strong winds and large
NW swell. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun 
night. Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with 
moderate to fresh, locally strong NW-N winds developing from the 
central Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes by the middle 
of next week. Looking ahead, near gale force northerly winds may 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo,
with moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from
the Papagayo region northward, with seas to 7 ft in the Gulf of 
Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the 
Papagayo region through early Mon, with seas occasionally to 8 
ft. Similar conditions are expected in the Gulf of Panama and 
near the Azuero Peninsula through tonight, then moderate to 
fresh there into early Mon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
3 to 6 ft seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming
large northerly swell over the northern waters.

A cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending 
from 30N118W to 23N132W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N 
between 119W and 136W. Associated NW-N swell outrun the front as
described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, weather 
is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of the 
region. Gentle to moderate trades prevail from 04N to 20N and W 
of 130W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the 
open waters away from the significant swell event are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and
associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will
continue to weaken and drift south through Sun, leading to 
lesser tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the 
ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. Trades may 
further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of next week. 
The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 
ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next 
week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week.
 
$$
AReinhart