000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell: A cold front moving into northern waters followed by subsequent surface troughs will be accompanied by reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft are greater are spreading S of 30N, across the waters N of 27N between 122W and 137W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far south as 23N between 117W and 137W this weekend with seas peaking around 18 ft along 30N. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your national weather service for more details on conditions near the coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 04N105W. A surface trough extends from 01N109W to 11N107W. The ITCZ extends from 05N114W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 89W and 94W and from 01N to 08N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is well W of Baja California Norte while a pre-frontal trough in the northern Gulf of California is supporting fresh to strong S-SW winds N of 30N. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted across the Baja California Norte waters. Meanwhile, NW swell of 7 to 10 ft outruns the cold front and is moving into the Baja California Norte waters. Gentle N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. A weak pressure pattern prevails across the remainder of the waters with mainly light to gentle winds, except moderate in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a cold front and subsequent surface troughs will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through the weekend, bringing with them increasing winds and large NW swell, including fresh to strong winds ahead of the front in the offshore Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of California through early Mon. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun night. Ridging will build in behind the front/troughs with moderate to fresh, locally strong NW-N winds developing from the central Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes by the middle of next week. Looking ahead, near gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from the Papagayo region northward, with seas to 7 ft in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through early Mon, with seas occasionally to 8 ft. Similar conditions are expected in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through tonight, then moderate to fresh there into early Mon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming large northerly swell over the northern waters. A cold front is moving across the northern waters early this morning, extending from 30N121W to 24N132W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N between 123W and 135W. Associated NW-N swell outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere across waters N of the ITCZ, weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered N of the region. Moderate trades prevail from 04N to 21N and W of 125W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the open waters away from the significant swell event are 5 to 7 ft, except to 8 ft downwind of the Tehuantepec region due to an earlier gap wind event. For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will continue to weaken and drift south through the weekend, leading to lesser tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. Trades may further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of next week. The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week. $$ AReinhart