000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300730
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell: A cold front moving into northern waters 
followed by subsequent surface troughs will be accompanied by 
reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas of 12 ft are greater
are spreading S of 30N, across the waters N of 28.5N between 126W
and 135W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will reach to 23N between 
117W and 137W this weekend with seas peaking around 18 ft along 
30N. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous marine
conditions will occur with these seas over the open waters, and 
also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely resulting in 
dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your 
national weather service for more details on conditions near the 
coast. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia near 07N77W
to 05N90W to 04N97W. The ITCZ extends from 04N97W to 06N107W,
then resumes W of a surface trough from 06N111W to 05N124W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03N to 07N between 92W and 100W, from 02N to 06N between 124W and
131W, and from 01N to 05N between 133W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is well W of Baja California Norte while a
pre-frontal trough in the northern Gulf of California is
supporting fresh to strong S-SW winds N of 30N. NW swell of 7 to
9 ft outruns the cold front and is moving into the Baja 
California Norte waters. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec per a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, while remnant
7 to 8 ft NE swell from an earlier gale event is pushing SW now
of the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec zone. A weak pressure 
pattern prevails across the remainder of the waters with mainly 
light to gentle winds, except moderate in the central and
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the 
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a cold front and subsequent surface troughs 
will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf of
California through the weekend, bringing with them increasing 
winds and large NW swell, including fresh to strong winds ahead 
of the front in the northern Gulf of California through early 
Mon, and offshore Baja California Norte. This swell could 
generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of 
Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun night. Ridging will build in 
behind the front/troughs with moderate to fresh, locally strong 
NW-N winds developing from the central Gulf of California to near
Cabo Corrientes by the middle of next week. Looking ahead, near 
gale force northerly winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong gap winds are ongoing in the gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft from the Papagayo region northward, as well as
in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, and 3 to 5
ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the 
Papagayo region through early Mon, with seas occasionally to 8 
ft. Similar conditions are expected in the Gulf of Panama and 
near the Azuero Peninsula through tonight, then moderate to 
fresh there into early Mon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
3 to 6 ft seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming
large northerly swell over the northern waters.

A cold front is moving across the northern waters early this
morning, extending from 30N122W to 26.5N130W to 26N140W. Fresh 
to strong winds are N of 27N between 126W and 138W. Associated 
NW-N swell outrun the front as described above. Elsewhere across 
waters N of the ITCZ, weather is dominated by a weakening high 
pressure centered N of the region. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail from 04N to 20N and W of 125W, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the open waters away from the
significant swell event are 5 to 7 ft, except to 8 ft downwind of
the Tehuantepec region due to an earlier gap wind event.

For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and
associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will
continue to weaken and drift south through the weekend, leading
to lesser tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the
ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. Trades may
further increase to fresh to strong my the middle of next week. 
The aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 
ft across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next 
week, then become focused across the fresh trades by mid-week.
 
$$
Lewitsky