000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291947
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell: A cold front moving into northern waters 
today followed by subsequent surface troughs will be accompanied 
by reinforcing sets of northerly swell. By late this evening, 
seas will start to build to 12 ft or greater S of 30N, then 
spread S and SE to 24N between 118W and 137W by Sat evening when 
peak seas are forecast to build to around 17 ft along 30N. These 
seas will continue to spread SE into early next week before 
subsiding. Wave periods will be 12 to 14 seconds. Very hazardous 
marine conditions will occur with these seas over the open 
waters, and also at the coast of Baja California Norte, likely 
resulting in dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products 
from your national weather service for more details on conditions
near the coast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
both areas.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia near 07N78W
to 04N89W. The ITCZ runs westward from 04N89W to 03N117W to 
00N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
01N to 09N between 91W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region ended earlier today,
with seas falling below 12 ft. Remnant strong gap winds will
diminish this evening and seas will fall below 8 ft overnight.
Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate 
northerly winds, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in increasing NW swell. 
For the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft 
seas prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in 
mixed moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, A cold front and subsequent surface troughs
will pass over the offshore waters of Baja California and Gulf 
of California through the weekend, bringing with them increasing 
winds and large NW swell, including fresh to strong winds ahead 
of the front in the northern Gulf of California tonight through 
early Mon. This swell could generate very rough seas at the outer
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning. Winds may
freshen near Cabo Corrientes early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong gap winds are ongoing in the gulfs of 
Papagayo and Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft for waters including and south of Costa Rica,
with 5 to 7 ft seas to the north. These higher seas are being
caused by swell generated from earlier gales in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec combined with wind waves from the Gulf of Papagayo. 

For the forecast, elevated seas through the outer waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador generated by earlier gales in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will diminish tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong in the Papagayo region through early Wed, with seas 
occasionally to 8 ft. Similar conditions are expected in the Gulf
of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Sat night. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming
large northerly swell over the northern waters.

A cold front is moving into the far NW waters today, stretching
from 30N135W to 28N140W. Fresh NW winds follow this front, with
seas increase to 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere across waters N of the
ITCZ, weather is dominated by a weakening high pressure centered
N of the region. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
across the basin average 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the cold front, troughs, and
associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge will
continue to weaken and drift south through the weekend, leading
to lesser tradewinds. In the wake of the fronts and troughs, the
ridge will rebuild next week, freshening trades. The 
aforementioned northerly swells will support seas of 7 to 10 ft 
across the majority of the waters N of the ITCZ early next week.
 
$$
Konarik