000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected by late tonight as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to increase quickly and reach gale force by early Thu morning. Seas under these winds will build and peak at 12 to 14 ft by Thu evening. Swell generated by this gap wind event will spread southwestward, creating seas of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon. Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local fishermen need to monitor this upcoming gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends westward from a 1012 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to 07N95W to another 1012 mb low pressure situated near 05N125W. The ITCZ continues from 05N125W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 80W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 110W and 125W, and from 00N to 03N between 125W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. High pressure of 1026 mb located near 29N129W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The associated ridge reaches the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW swell across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the southern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including water near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region beginning late tonight, then quickly reach gale-force by early Thu morning with seas building to 8 and 11 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Fri morning, with seas peaking at 12 to 14 ft tonight. The pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the central and southern Gulf of California, and near Cabo Corrientes until late tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing winds and a new swell event. Seas are forecast to build up to 14 or 15 ft with this swell event across the outer offshore forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering isolated to scattered showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and Ecuador. Visible satellite imagery indicates slight concentration of smoke from agricultural fires along and near the Pacific coast of Central America, from Costa Rica to Guatemala. These fires are common in this geographical region during the dry season, and can have a strong influence on weather and climate. For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a frontal boundary is approaching 30N140W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades along with 8 to 9 ft seas from 07N to 20N west of 125W, confirmed by the most recent scatterometer data. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is evident across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 120W due to the presence of a 1026 mb high pressure located near 29N129W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken further through tonight as a weakening front moves across the NW and north-central waters. This will allow trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until Thu. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas. $$ GR