000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected by late Wed night as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to increase quickly and reach gale force by Thu morning. Seas under these winds will build and peak at 12 to 14 ft by Thu evening. Swell generated by thIS gap wind event will spread southwestward, creating seas of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Fri afternoon. Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local fishermen need to monitor this upcoming gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends westward from a 1011 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 05N104W to another 1009 mb low pressure situated near 05N125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 80W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 116W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. A broad, modest surface ridge across the eastern Pacific is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW swell across the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the southern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including water near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region beginning late Wed night, then quickly reach gale-force by Thu morning with seas building to 8 and 11 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Fri morning with seas peaking at 12 to 14 ft tonight. The pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the central and southern Gulf of California, and near Cabo Corrientes until late tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing winds and a new swell event. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate S to SW to W winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a frontal boundary is approaching 30N140W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades along with 8 to 9 ft seas from 07N to 23N west of 125W, confirmed by the latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data. For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken further through tonight as a weakening front moves across the NW ans north-central waters. This will allow trade winds from 07N to 23N west of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until Thu. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW swell. $$ GR