000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected by
late Wed night as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to increase quickly
and reach near-gale to gale-force by early Thu morning. Seas
under these winds will build and peak at 11 to 13 ft by Thu 
evening. Swell generated by these gap winds will spread 
southwestward, creating seas of 8 to 10 ft reaching as far west 
as 100W on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to 
subside late Fri afternoon. 

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local 
fishermen need to monitor this upcoming gap wind event, and take
necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the border of Panama
and Colombia across 06N100W and a 1009 mb low near 05N125W to 
03N130W. An ITCZ continues from 03N130W to beyond 02N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 
83W and 87W, and from 03N to 08N between 102W and 112W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the low
from 04N to 06N between 122W and 126W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale 
Warning.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high 
pressure located near 31N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This system is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along
with seas at 8 to 9 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters of  
Baja California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 2 to 4 ft 
seas are present at the northern Gulf of California, while light 
to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident for the rest of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including also Cabo 
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, a ridge W of the Baja California will support 
mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds. Seas in this area are 
going to gradually subside from north to south, dropping below 8 
ft by Wed. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected in the 
central and south parts of the Gulf of California Wed and Wed 
night due the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge 
to the W and lower pressures over the Sierra Madre mountains and 
central Mexico. This weather pattern will also support fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes 
this evening through Wed evening. A strong cold front is forecast
to enter the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Sat, 
bringing with it increasing winds and a new swell event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering some shower
activity near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of 
central America, Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a southerly wind flow will
continue to support sporadic showers and thunderstorms near the 
Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore
waters through at least Thu. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu 
night. Starting Fri, gap winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of 
Panama will steadily increase as high pressure builds north of 
the area. Also on Fri, swell generated by gap winds at the 
Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas across the far 
southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high 
pressure located near 31N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near
the equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally 
strong trades from 10N to 18N west of 128W. Scatterometer data 
confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas in this area 
are 8 to 10 ft. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to weaken over
the next 24 hours as a cold front approaches from the west. As a
result, the trade winds will diminish over the west-central waters.
Large NW swell, with a leading edge period of 19-20 seconds, will
continue to impact the forecast waters W of 110W on Wed and Wed 
night. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W early on Wed 
afternoon, and move across the NW waters through Thu while weakening.
A second and stronger cold front will reach the far NW corner of
the forecast area on Fri followed by fresh to strong northerly 
winds and a new swell event.
 
$$

Chan