000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected by Thu morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 30-35 kt, with seas building to 12-14 ft by Thu night. Seas generated from this gap wind event will spread away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 100W on Fri. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning through Fri morning should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Fri afternoon, and will likely be 20 kt or less by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends westward from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 04N95W to 05N104W to another 1010 mb low pressure situated near 04N123W. The ITCZ continues from 04N123W to beyond 01N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 05N to 08N between 108W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection can be found elsewhere from 04N to 08N between 82W and 90W, from 03N to 06N between 102W and 108W, and from 02N to 05N W of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high pressure located near 31N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas at 8 to 9 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including also Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, gale conditions are expected in the Tehuantepec region Thu morning through Fri morning with seas building to 12-14 ft. A ridge W of the Baja California will support mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds. Seas in this area are going to gradually subside from north to south, dropping below 8 ft by Wed. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected in the central and south parts of the Gulf of California Wed and Wed night due the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge to the W and lower pressures over the Sierra Madre mountains and central Mexico. This weather pattern will also support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes this evening through Wed evening. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Sat, bringing with it fresh to strong winds and a new swell event. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering some shower activity near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, abundant moisture in a southerly wind flow will continue to support some shower and thunderstorm activity near the Galapagos Islands through at least Thu. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the SW offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, building seas there to 8 to 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high pressure located near 31N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally strong trades from 10N to 18N west of 128W. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours as a cold front approaches from the west. As a result, the trade winds will diminish over the west-central waters. Large NW swell, with a leading edge period of 19-20 seconds, will continue to impact the forecast waters W of 110W on Wed and Wed night. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W early on Wed afternoon, and move across the NW waters through Thu while weakening. A second and stronger cold front will reach the far NW corner of the forecast area on Fri followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and a new swell event. $$ GR