000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected by Thu morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 30-35 kt, with seas building to 12-13 ft by Thu night. Seas generated from this gap wind event will spread away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 100W on Fri. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning through Fri morning should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Fri afternoon, and will be 20 kt or less by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends westward from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N95W to 06N95W to 05N110W to another 1009 mb low pressure situated near 03N123W. The ITCZ continues from 03N123W to beyond 01N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 05N to 08N between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection can be found elsewhere from 00N to 06N between 90W and 110W, from 04N to 07N between 120W and 130W, and from 02N to 04N W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high pressure located near 31N140W across the Revillagigedo Islands to south of Michoacan State, Mexico. It is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas at 8 to 9 ft in large NW swell west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, gale conditions are expected in the Tehuantepec region Thu morning through Fri morning with seas building to 12-13 ft. A ridge W of the Baja California will support mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds west of Baja California, and near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Seas in this area are going to gradually subside from north to south, dropping below 8 ft by Wed. In the Gulf of California, fresh southerly winds at the northern gulf will become gentle to moderate by noon today, and fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected at the southern gulf on Wed evening. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will linger near Cabo Corrientes until Wed evening. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Fri night, bringing with it large NW swell and building seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, periodic showers and thunderstorms will persist near the Galapagos Islands through Wed. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible near strong thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the SW offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, building seas there to 8 to 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high pressure near 31N140W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally strong trades from 09N to 20N west of 130W. Based on earlier altimeter data, seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft in mixed NE and NW swells. For the forecast, the high pressure will weaken over the next 48 hours as a cold front approaches from the west. As a result, winds will diminish over the west-central waters and across the waters W of Baja California. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to impact the N waters over the next 48 hours, building seas to 8 to 9 ft. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W early on Wed afternoon, and move across the NW waters through Thu while weakening. Another cold front will reach the far NW corner of the forecast area on Fri followed by another swell event. $$ GR