000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends southwestward from southern Panama 
across 05N110W to 00N132W. An ITCZ continues from 00N132W to 
beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
trough from 03N to 09N between 90W and 126W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high 
near 30N144W across the Revillagigedo Islands to south of 
Michoacan State, Mexico. It is supporting gentle to moderate NW 
to N winds along with seas at 8 to 9 ft in large NW swell west of
Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh 
southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the northern 
Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft 
are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds 
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near Cabo Corrientes, while fresh 
westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the western Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the central and 
southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will support 
mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds west of Baja California,
and near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Seas in this 
area are going to gradually subside from north to south, dropping
below 8 ft by Wed. In the Gulf of California, fresh southerly 
winds at the northern gulf will become gentle to moderate by noon
today, and fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected at the 
southern gulf on Wed evening. Farther south, fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas will linger near Cabo Corrientes 
until Wed evening. In the long term, the next gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is anticipated from late Wed night 
through early Fri morning, possibly reaching gale force along 
with very rough to high seas. A strong cold front is forecast to 
enter the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Fri night, and
Baja California Sur on Sat, bringing with it large NW swell and 
rising seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered 
showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of 
central America, Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, periodic showers and thunderstorms will 
persist near the Galapagos Islands through Wed. Gusty winds and 
rough seas are possible near strong thunderstorms. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap 
winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily 
increase as high pressure builds north of the area. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Convergent SW to W winds with modest divergent flow aloft are
triggering scattered moderate convection northwest of the
Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional convection in the area.

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high 
pressure near 30N144W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the 
equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally 
strong trades from 09N to 20N west of 125W. Based on earlier 
altimeter data, seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft in mixed large 
NE and NW swells. North of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to 
moderate with locally fresh NW to N winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft 
in moderate to large northerly swell prevail. From the 
ITCZ/equatorial trough to 09N/15N and west of 110W/125W, moderate
with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will steadily weaken through
Wed morning as a weak cold front approaches from the west. As a 
result, winds from 09N to 20N west of 120W will gradually
diminish. As the NW swell slowly decays Tue through Thu, seas in
this area will also decline and drop below 8 ft on Thu night. 
The above mentioned cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W early
Wed afternoon, and move southeastward through Thu while 
weakening. Another stronger cold front will reach the far 
northwest corner of the forecast area on Fri followed by more NW
swell.
 
$$

Chan