000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260402
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends southwestward from the coastal 
border of Panama and Costa Rica across 08N83W and 05N110W to 
01N133W. An ITCZ continues from 01N133W to beyond 02N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
05N to 08N between 90W and 97W...and from 02N to 07N between 
112W and 126W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high 
near 31N143W across the Revillagigedo Islands to south of 
Michoacan State, Mexico. It is supporting gentle to moderate NW 
to N winds along with seas at 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell west 
of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh with
locally strong southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at
the northern Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and seas 
at 1 to 3 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to 
strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near Cabo 
Corrientes, while fresh westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
dominate the western Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate W to
NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for 
the rest of the central and southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will support 
mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds west of Baja California,
and near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Seas in this 
area are going to gradually subside, dropping below 8 ft by Wed. 
In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong 
southerly winds at the northern gulf tonight, and similar winds 
from the NW at the southern gulf Wed evening. Farther south, 
fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will linger near 
Cabo Corrientes until Wed evening. In the long term, the next gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected on Thu, 
possibly reaching gale force along with very rough to high seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the 
offshore waters of central America, Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, periodic showers and thunderstorms will
continue near the Galapagos Islands through Wed. Gusty winds and
rough seas are possible near strong thunderstorms. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap 
winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily 
increase as high pressure builds north of the area. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high 
pressure near 32N145W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the 
equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades
from 09N to 20N west of 120W. Based on altimeter data, seas in
this area are 8 to 12 ft in mixed large NE and NW swells. North 
of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh 
NW to N winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell 
prevail. Between the ITCZ/equatorial trough and 10N, moderate 
with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will steadily weaken through
Wed morning as a cold front approaches from the west. As a 
result, winds from 09N to 20N west of 120W will gradually
diminish. As the NW swell slowly decays Tue through Thu, seas in
this area will also decline and drop below 8 ft on Thu night. 
The above mentioned cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W early
on Wed afternoon, and move southeastward through Thu while 
weakening. Another cold front will reach the far northwest corner
of the forecast area on Fri followed by another swell event. 
 
$$

Chan