000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the coastal border of
Western Panama and Costa Rica to 08N96W to 04N119W to 01N133W. 
The ITCZ continues from 01N133W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N 
between 90W and 100W, from 02N to 05N between 109W and 120W, and
from 01N to 04N between 120W and 127W. 

A second ITCZ is analyzed mainly S of the Equator and extends 
from 05S86W to 01N94W to 03S108W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen from 02S to 00N between 90W and 100W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high pressure located near 32N145W extends a ridge 
across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula, including 
also the region between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands. This 
system is producing fresh to strong NW winds across the offshore 
waters of Baja California. Similar wind speeds are also noted 
across the waters just S of Cabo San Lucas to about 19N between 
108W and 112W based on scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 12 ft 
within these winds, with the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. In 
the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds prevail in the 
southern part of the Gulf while gentle to moderate winds are 
observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft south of 28N and
2 to 4 ft N of 28N...except to 6 ft near to the entrance of the 
Gulf. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft 
prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California over the next several days
supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds beginning tonight.
Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by this evening, and
below 8 ft by Tue evening. In the Gulf of California expect 
gentle to moderate winds with the exception of moderate to 
locally fresh SW winds N of 29N tonight, and fresh to locally 
strong NW winds over the souther part of the Gulf by Wed evening.
Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected on Thu, likely reaching minimal gale force with seas
building to 12 or 13 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Modest convergent southerly winds are generating scattered
moderate convection in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail 
across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and 
Ecuador. 

For the forecast, abundant moisture will persist near the 
Galapagos Islands supporting the development of scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds and seas could be 
higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region 
through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds in the Papagayo area 
and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase as high pressure builds
N of the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1032 mb high pressure
near 32N145W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial
trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades from 06N
to 20N W of 130W, and from 12N to 16N between 120W and 130W.
Based on altimeter data, seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds 
in mixed NE and NW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure will weaken over the next 48
hours as a cold front approaches from the west. As a result, 
winds will diminish over the west-central waters and across the 
waters W of Baja California. Additional pulses of long period NW 
swell will continue to impact the N waters over the next 48 
hours, building seas to 8 to 9 ft. The above mentioned cold front
is forecast to reach 30N140W early on Wed afternoon, and move 
across the NW waters through Thu while weakening. Another cold 
front will reach the far NW corner of the forecast area on Fri 
followed by another swell event. 
 
$$
GR