000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251001 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. Updated to add SPECIAL FEATURES section ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell West of Baja California Norte: Large NW swell will maintain 12 to 15 ft seas north of 25N from the Offshore waters of Baja California Norte to 125W through late this afternoon. As the NW swell starts to decay early this evening, seas are going to drop below 12 ft later this evening. Mariners, especially local fishermen need to monitor these dangerous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please refer to the High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php of more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends westward from the coastal border of Panama and Colombia to 08N105W, then turns southwestward to 00N133W. An ITCZ continues westward from 00N133W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 02N to 09N between 83W and 106W, and from 02N to 08N between 111W and 127W. No significant convection is seen near the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section about Significant Swell. A low to mid-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Baja California Norte and over the northern Gulf of California. A 1033 mb, large dome of high pressure is channeling fresh to strong NW winds west of Baja California, and south of Cabo San Lucas. Large NW swell is producing 8 to 11 ft west of Baja California Sur. Westerly gap winds at strong to near-gale force are present at the northern Gulf of California, while fresh to strong are noted at the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas are at 4 to 7 ft across the entire Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the central and southern Mexico offshore waters, except fresh to strong at the western Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a large dome of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to channel fresh to strong NW winds across the waters west of Baja California, and near Cabo San Lucas through this morning. Strong to near-gale force gap winds at the Gulf of California are expected to subside to between gentle and moderate by late this morning, then become fresh to strong for tonight. In addition, large NW swell is going to sustain very rough to high seas off Baja California Norte, and rough to very rough seas off Baja California Sur through this evening. Afterward, seas at both areas should subside to between moderate and rough by Tue. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are expected at the western Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning, and near Cabo Corrientes from early Tue morning through Wed. In the long term, a gap wind event is forecast to begin at the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thu and might reach gale force. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Modest convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate convection south of the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of Latin America, Ecuador and Colombia. For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated to linger near the Galapagos Islands and well offshore from Panama through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds near the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section about Significant Swell. A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1033 mb high pressure near 31N146W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is channeling fresh to strong winds north of 25N between 120W and 125W. For the remaining area north of 20N between 120W/115W and 140W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in moderate NW to N swell exist. Tight pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft from 10N to 20N west of 123W. Moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted elsewhere west of 110W and north of the ITCZ/equatorial trough. Gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters. For the forecast, the high pressure will begin to weaken later this morning, allowing winds north of 25N between 120W and 127W to decrease through this afternoon. For the same reason, winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W are expected to gradually subside this evening through Tue morning. As the NW to N swell starts to decay this evening, seas north of 10N and west of 120W should slowly subside late tonight through Wed. $$ Chan