000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the coastal border of
Panama and Colombia to 08N110W, then turns southwestward to 
01S132W. An ITCZ continues from 01S132W to beyond 01S140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 02N 
to 08N between 89W and 107W, and from 03N to 06N between 118W and
123W. No significant convection is seen near the ITCZ.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low to mid-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of California.
A 1030 mb, large dome of high pressure is channeling fresh to 
strong NW winds west of Baja California Norte, and moderate to 
fresh NW to N winds west of Baja California Sur, and south of 
Cabo San Lucas. Large NW swell is producing 10 to 14 ft seas near
Baja California Norte, and 7 to 9 ft seas near Baja California 
Sur. Westerly gap winds at strong to near-gale force are present 
at the northern Gulf of California, while fresh to strong are 
noted at the central Gulf of California. Seas are at 3 to 6 ft 
for both the northern and central Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate with locally fresh W to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft 
prevail for the rest of the central and southern Mexico offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, a large dome of high pressure over the eastern
Pacific will continue to channel fresh to strong NW winds across
the waters west of Baja California, and near Cabo San Lucas 
through Mon morning. These winds will sustain strong to near-
gale force gap winds at the Gulf of California until late Mon
morning. In addition, large NW swell is going to produce very
rough to high seas off Baja California Norte, and rough to very
rough seas off Baja California Sur through early Tue morning.
Farther south, fresh to strong winds are expected at the western
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning, and near Cabo 
Corrientes from late Tue afternoon through Wed night. In the 
long term, a gap wind event is forecast to begin at the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec on Thu and might reach gale force.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Modest convergent southerly winds are generating scattered
moderate convection south of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the 
offshore waters of Latin America, Ecuador and Colombia.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap winds near the
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama will steadily increase.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb NW of the area continues to 
extend a ridge across the subtropical E Pacific waters, reaching 
as far south as 07N and as far east as the Baja California 
offshore waters. A weakening cold front is ahead of the ridge, 
which is moving across the Baja Sur Peninsula. Fresh to strong 
NW winds extends farther west from the Baja California offshores
to near 128W while the ridge continues to support another area 
of fresh to strong trades from 07N to 20N W of 122W. Seas over 
the subtropical waters are in the 8 to 13 ft, highest in the 
regions of strongest winds. Over the second area of strong winds,
far west in the tropical waters, seas are 8-12 ft. Light to 
gentle breezes are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and the equatorial
trough. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across these remainder Pacific
waters.

For the forecast, the cold front is expected to dissipate tonight.
Fresh to strong winds behind the cold front and north of the 
ITCZ will continue through Mon night. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow
the front while combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ 
tonight. Seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja 
California coast today. Moderate to fresh winds will continue 
north of the ITCZ through most of the week with seas to 10 ft. 
 
$$

Chan