000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232232 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

CORRECTED MEXICO OFFSHORES FORECAST...

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California: A cold front will move across the Gulf of
California this evening through Sun. Gale force winds will 
develop in the northern Gulf this evening and continue through 
Sun morning. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the highest 
winds. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the 
northern and central Gulf through Sun night into Mon morning as 
the cold front dissipates. Conditions will improve Mon into Mon 
night. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 
05N110W to 00N129W. The ITCZ continues from 00N129W to 01S140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 90W,
and from 03N to 11N between 100W and 123W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of California. 

Surface ridging continues to influence the area with gentle to 
moderate NW winds off the Baja California and the entrance of the  
Gulf of California. A weak pressure gradient support light to
gentle winds in the central and southern Gulf of California as
well as the SW Mexican offshore waters where seas are 4-5 ft,
except to 3 ft in the Gulf. In the northern Gulf of California, a
prefrontal trough supports moderate to fresh SW to W winds.
Otherwise, surface ridging building in the wake of a cold front
moving across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a gap wind event 
with fresh to strong speeds and seas to 6 ft in the Tehuantepec 
region. 

For the forecast, a cold front will move through the Baja 
California and northern Gulf of California offshore waters today.
Gale force winds are expected to begin in the northern Gulf by 
this evening and continue through Sun morning. Seas are expected
to build 8 to 9 ft. Strong winds will persist in the northern 
and central Gulf Sun through Mon morning, with conditions 
improving by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds 
will follow the front across the Baja California offshore waters 
with rough to very rough seas tonight through Mon. Winds off the 
Baja Peninsula will diminish to moderate speeds Mon night and 
seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue night into Wed. A brief gap 
wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region later today 
into tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the region along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas. A stronger gap wind with potential gale 
winds is forecast to begin Wed night into Thu morning and 
continue through Fri morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing 
across the Central America offshore waters as well as the
offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Scattered showers are noted between the coast of 
Colombia and the Costa Rica offshore waters. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas are forecast to prevail through Thu night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N118W to 21N130W intersecting a broad
surface ridge that extends to 08N and 112W. Strong high pressure
behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly winds and
7 to 11 ft seas in NW swell N of 24N, and a broad area of fresh 
to strong NE winds from 03N to 24N W of 126W with 8-10 ft seas. 
Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and the
equatorial trough. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across these remainder
Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ will merge with the longer period 
NW swell propagating across the region from the cold front this
evening. The cold front is expected to push eastward through 
Sun, eventually dissipating by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds
will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front through 
Mon. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front while combining with 
the wind waves near the ITCZ tonight. By Sun, seas could build 
to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja California coast.
 
$$
Ramos