000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California: A cold front will move across the Gulf of
California this evening through Sun. Gale force winds will 
develop in the northern Gulf this evening and continue through 
Sun morning. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the highest 
winds. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the 
northern and central Gulf through Sun night into Mon morning as 
the cold front dissipates. Conditions will improve Mon into Mon 
night. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N82W
to 06N104W to 00N129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 10N between 101W and 124W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N to 10N E of 89W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of California. 

Surface ridging continues to influence the area with gentle to 
moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and off the 
southwest Mexico offshore waters. Seas over these regions remain
in the 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing 
along the Gulf of California and the southern Mexico offshore 
waters, except for moderate N winds in the Tehuantepec region. 
Seas over these regions are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front will move through the Baja 
California and northern Gulf of California offshore waters today.
Gale force winds are expected to begin in the northern Gulf by 
this evening and continue through Sun morning. Seas are expected
to build 8 to 9 ft. Strong winds will persist in the northern 
and central Gulf Sun through Mon morning, with conditions 
improving by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds 
will follow the front across the Baja California offshore waters 
with rough to very rough seas tonight through Mon. Winds off the 
Baja Peninsula will diminish to moderate speeds Mon night and 
seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue night into Wed. A brief gap 
wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region later today 
into tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the region along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas. A stronger gap wind is forecast to begin 
Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing 
across the Central America offshore waters as well as the
offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Widely scattered showers are noted between the coast of
Colombia and the Costa Rica offshore waters. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas are forecast to prevail through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N120W to 22N131W. Strong high 
pressure behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in NW swell. Ahead of the front, 
surface ridging extending to 13N and 113W. The associated 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting a 
broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ from
17N to 22N and W of 132W where seas are 8-10 ft. A broad area of
fresh NE winds are S of this area from 03N to 18N and W of 122W
with seas to 9 ft. Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere under 
the influence of the ridge, except for moderate northerlies 
between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 
the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of 
Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 120W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the 
cold front today. The cold front is expected to push eastward 
through Sun, eventually dissipating by Sun night. Moderate to 
fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold 
front through Mon. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front while 
combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ today into tonight. 
By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja 
California coast.
 
$$
Ramos