000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230952
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California: A cold front will move across the Gulf of
California later this evening through Sun. Gale force winds will
develop in the northern Gulf this evening and continue through
Sun morning. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the highest
winds. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the 
northern and central Gulf through Sun night into Mon morning as 
the cold front dissipates. Conditions will improve later on Mon
into Mon night. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N82W
to 07N100W to 00130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 09N between 101W and 133W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of California. 

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and
off the southwest Mexico offshore waters along with 4 to 6 ft 
seas. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of 
California and the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas over 
these regions are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except to 3 ft in the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front will move through the Baja 
California and northern Gulf of California offshore waters today.
Gale force winds are expected to begin in the northern Gulf by 
this evening and continue through Sun morning. Seas are expected
to build 8 to 9 ft. Strong winds will persist in the northern 
and central Gulf Sun through Mon morning, with conditions 
improving by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds 
will follow the front across the Baja California offshore waters 
with rough to very rough seas tonight through Mon. Winds off the 
Baja Peninsula will diminish to moderate speeds Mon night and 
seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a 
brief gap wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region later
today into tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the region
along with 5 to 7 ft seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing 
across the Central America offshore waters as well as the
offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Isolated showers are noted off the coast of Costa Rica
and Panama. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas are forecast to prevail through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N124W to 23N131W. Strong high 
pressure behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in NW swell. Ahead of the front,  
surface ridging extending to 07N and 113W. The associated 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting a 
broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 
16N with 8 to 10 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere 
under the influence of the ridge, except for moderate northerlies
between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 
the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of 
Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 110W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the
cold front today. The cold front is expected to push eastward 
through Sun, eventually dissipating by Sun night. Moderate to 
fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold 
front today through Mon. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front 
while combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ today into 
tonight. By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the 
Baja California coast.
 
$$
AReinhart