000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N83W
to 06N102W to 01N131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 08N between 101W and 133W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and
off the southwest Mexico offshore waters along with 4 to 6 ft 
seas. Gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California and
the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas over these regions are
in the 4 to 6 ft range, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, a cold front will move through the Baja 
California and northern Gulf of California offshore waters Sat 
afternoon. Gale force winds are expected to begin in the northern
Gulf by Sat evening and continue through Sun morning. Strong 
winds can also be expected in the central Gulf with seas building
8 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across 
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into Mon. Winds off the Baja Peninsula will 
diminish to moderate speeds Mon night and seas will subside below
8 ft by Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a brief gap wind event is
forecast for the Tehuantepec region Sat and Sat night, bringing 
fresh to strong winds to the region along with 5 to 7 ft seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing 
across the Central America offshore waters as well as the
offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Isolated showers are noted off the coast of Costa Rica
and Panama. 

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas are forecast to prevail through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N126W to 23N136W. Strong high 
pressure behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in NW swell. Ahead of the front, a 1020
mb center of high pressure is located near 26N126W with 
associated surface ridging extending to 08N and 110W. The 
associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is 
supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 
the ITCZ to 20N with 8 to 9 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are
elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, except for moderate 
northerlies between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle winds are 
noted south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 110W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the
cold front by Sat morning. The cold front is expected to push 
eastward through the weekend, eventually dissipating Sat night 
into Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will become fresh to strong 
winds behind the cold front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will
follow the front while combining with the wind waves near the 
ITCZ Sat into Sat night. By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east 
of 126W to the Baja California coast.
 
$$
AReinhart