000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from 08N78W 
to 07N90W to 05N109W to 03N122W. The ITCZ continues from 03N122W
to 01N130W to 03N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N
to 07N between 102W and 125W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is elsewhere from 02S to 09N E of 86W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and
the entrance of the Gulf of California along with 4 to 6 ft 
seas. Gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California, the 
southern and southwest Mexico offshore waters. Seas over these 
regions are in the 4-5 ft range, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters Sat afternoon, then cross into the Gulf of 
California by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the 
front across the Baja California offshore waters with rough to 
very rough seas this weekend into Mon. Fresh to near-gale force W
to NW winds are expected along the Gulf of California Sat night 
through Mon along with rough seas. The strongest winds associated
with the passage of the front will occur in the northern and
central portions of the gulf. Winds off the Baja Peninsula will
diminish to moderate speeds Mon evening and seas will subside
below 8 ft by Wed. Otherwise, a brief gap wind event is forecast
for the Tehuantepec region Sat and Sat night, bringing fresh to
strong winds to the region along with 5-6 ft seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing 
across the Central America offshore waters as well as the
offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 
between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador and 86W.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate
seas are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N127W to 22N138W. Strong high 
pressure behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and 7-9 ft seas in NW swell. Ahead of the front, a 1021 mb
center of high pressure is located near 28N122W with associated 
surface ridging extending to 08N and 110W. The associated 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting a 
broad area of fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 12N with 8-9 
ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere under the 
influence of the ridge, except for moderate northerlies between
110W and 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the 
ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of Pacific 
waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 110W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the
cold front. The cold front is expected to push eastward through 
the weekend, eventually dissipating Sat night into Sun. Moderate
to fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold
front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front
while combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ Sat into Sat
night. By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja
California coast.
 
$$
Ramos