000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from 08N78W 
to 07N90W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 04N117W
and then from 03N123W to 02N136W. A 1010 mb low located near
04N120W breaks the ITCZ and generates scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 03N to 07N between 115W and 127W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 101W and 112W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S to 09N
E of 89W.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California along
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of 
California, the southern and southwest Mexico offshore waters.
Seas over these regions are in the 4-5 ft range, except to 3 ft
in the Gulf of California.  

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California 
by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across 
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into early next week. Strong to near-gale force 
winds can be expected in the northern and central Gulf of 
California Sat night through early next week with rough seas. 
Fresh to locally strong gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat afternoon and night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf
of Papagayo with seas to 6 ft while light to gentle northerly 
winds and seas to 5 ft are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to
gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing 
elsewhere. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 
between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador and 89W.

For the forecast, moderate winds in Papagayo will diminish to
light to gentle speeds this evening. Light to gentle variable
winds will then prevail through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere the next five days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N130W to 22N138W. A reinforcing cold
front extends from 30N135W to 28N140W. Strong high pressure
behind these fronts supports fresh northerly winds and 8-9 ft
seas in NW swell. Ahead of the fronts, a 1021 mb center of high 
pressure is located near 29N123W with associated surface ridging
extending to 13N and 110W. The associated pressure gradient
between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting a broad area of
fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 16N with 8 ft seas. Light 
to gentle breezes are elsewhere under the influence of the 
ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas 
range from 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 110W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the
cold front. The cold front is expected to push eastward through 
the weekend, eventually dissipating Sat night into Sun. Moderate
to fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold
front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front
while combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ Sat into Sat
night. By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja
California coast.
 
$$
Ramos