000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from 07N78W 
to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 04N111W and then 
from 03N120W to beyond 023140W. A trough extends from 010117W to
07N115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N 
between 100W and 125W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and
southwest Mexico offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters, except in the Gulf of California where seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California 
by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across 
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into early next week. Strong to near-gale force 
winds can be expected in the northern and central Gulf of 
California Sat night through early next week with rough seas. 
Fresh to locally strong gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat afternoon and night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf 
of Papagayo, due to a combination of local drainage effects and a
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to 
moderate. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa
Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in 
the Papagayo region will diminish later today. Moderate winds 
will also diminish across the Gulf of Panama today. Light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through
early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N132W to 23N139W with ASCAT data
confirming moderate N winds ahead and behind the front. Seas are
to 8 ft near the front within NW swell. Meanwhile, broad surface
ridging is in place over the area N of 17N. Moderate to fresh 
winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 19N, where seas of 6 to 8 ft 
are noted. Light to gentle breezes elsewhere N of 19N to 31N 
under the influence of the ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted
south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of Pacific waters.

For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate 
to fresh winds along the ITCZ and W of 110W will merge with the 
longer period NW swell propagating across the region from the
cold front. The cold front is expected to push eastward through 
the weekend, eventually dissipating Sat night into Sun. Moderate
to fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold
front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front
while combining with the wind waves near the ITCZ Sat into Sat
night. By Sun, seas could build to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja
California coast.
 
$$
AReinhart