895 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220350
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to
05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 04N112W and then from
03N119W to beyond 02N140W. A trough extends from 01N117W to
08N113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 94W and 123W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and
southwest Mexico offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters, except in the Gulf of California where seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California 
by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across 
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds can be 
expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Sat night
through early next week with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong
gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo,
due to a combination of local drainage effects and a relatively 
tight gradient related to high pressure north of the area. 
Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to moderate.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted southeast of the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds in the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. 
Moderate winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through 
Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N135W to 27N140W with moderate N
winds behind the front. A trough extends across the eastern 
Pacific high seas from 19N139W to 25N138W. No significant 
convection is noted with either features at this time. 
Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in place over the area N of 
19N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 
22N, where seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted. Gentle breezes elsewhere
N of 20N to 31N under the influence of the ridge. Light to 
gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 
ft across the remainder of Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken by Fri. Shorter period 
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of 
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell 
propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 to 
9 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds into early next
week. The cold front will continue to push eastward through the 
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will become fresh to strong 
winds behind the cold front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will
follow the front through the weekend, with seas to 12 to 14 ft 
possible by Sun.
 
$$
AReinhart