000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212137
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W
to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 06N110W, and then
from 04N119W to beyond 02N140W. A trough extends from 02N116W to
08N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N 
between 92W and 107W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California
waters, southward through with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and 
4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore 
waters, except in the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or 
less.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California 
by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across 
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds can be 
expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Sat night
through early next week with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong
gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo,
due to a combination of local drainage effects and a relatively 
tight gradient related to high pressure north of the area. 
Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to moderate. A 
trough extends across the Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters from 03S86W to 02N92W.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds in the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. 
Moderate winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through 
Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 
18N139W to 25N137W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in 
place over the area N of 15N. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
are noted N of the ITCZ to 18N, where seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
noted. Gentle breezes elsewhere N of 20N to 31N under the 
influence of the ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 
the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of Pacific
waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken today. Shorter period 
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of 
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell 
propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 to 
9 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds into early next
week. By tonight, a cold front will move east of 140W, then push
eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will 
become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front Sat through 
Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through the weekend, 
with seas to 12 to 14 ft possible by Sun.
 
$$
Konarik