589 AXPZ20 KNHC 211507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from 04N98W to 06N110W, and then from 04N118W to beyond 02N140W. A trough extends from 01N116W to 08N111W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 92W and 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, except in the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the rest of the week across the Mexico offshore waters. A cold front will approach the Baja California offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds can be expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Sat night through early next week with rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo, due to a combination of local drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the area. Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to moderate. A trough extends across the Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters from 03S86W to 02N92W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm of the trough, impacting the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. Moderate winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 16N140W to 25N136W. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in place over the area N of 15N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 18N, where seas 6 to 8 ft are noted. Gentle breezes elsewhere N of 20N to 31N under the influence of the ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the Pacific waters. For the forecast, the trough will weaken today. Shorter period wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 to 9 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds into early next week. By tonight, a cold front will move east of 140W, then push eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front Sat through Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through the weekend, with seas to 12 to 14 ft possible by Sun. $$ Konarik