000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210343
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W 
to 04N101W. The ITCZ continues from 04N101W to 02N120W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N 
between 78W and 132W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California and SW
Mexico offshore waters with seas 6 to 7 ft. Gentle winds and 4 
to 6 ft seas across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, 
except in the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft 
will prevail through the rest of the week across the Mexico
offshore waters. A cold front will approach the Baja California 
offshore waters Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California Sun.
This will bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas through most
of the weekend and into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, due to a combination of local drainage effects and a 
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to 
moderate. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters to the Colombia and Ecuador coastline.
Isolated thunderstorms are also occurring near the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in 
the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama 
through Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 
17N137W to 25N132W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in 
place over the area N of 12N. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N, and gentle breezes elsewhere N 
of 20N to 31N under the influence of the ridge. Light to gentle 
winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 8 ft 
across the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken tonight. Shorter period
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell 
propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 to
9 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds through the 
weekend. By Thu night, a cold front will move east of 140W and 
continue pushing eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh 
winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front by 
Sat into Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through 
through the weekend, with seas to 12 ft possible by Sun.

$$
AReinhart