674 
AXPZ20 KNHC 202032
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N78W 
to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 02N119W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N 
between 81W and 126W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
mainly gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Mexico 
offshore waters, except in the Gulf of California, where seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds may pulse from the 
southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes through tonight as
the high pressure builds west of the region and low pressure 
deepens over central Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 
to 6 ft will prevail through the rest of the week. A cold front 
will approach the Baja California offshore waters Sat, then 
cross into the Gulf of California Sun, bringing fresh to locally 
strong winds and rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, due to a combination of local drainage effects and a 
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight 
to moderate. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in 
the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama 
through Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 
15N126W to 30N131W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in 
place over the area N of 15N. Moderate winds are noted N of the 
ITCZ to 14N, and gentle breezes elsewhere N of 15N to 31N under 
the influence of the ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted 
south of the ITCZ. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across the Pacific 
waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken tonight. Shorter period
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell 
propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 ft
in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds through the 
weekend. By Thu night, a cold front will move east of 140W and 
continue pushing eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh 
winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front by 
Sat into Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through 
through the weekend, with seas to 12 ft possible by Sun.

$$
Konarik