000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N78W 
to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 02N119W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01N to 07N between 81W and 126W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
mainly gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Mexico 
offshore waters. Off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, moderate NW to
N winds continue with seas near 7 ft. Across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, strong gap winds are occurring, with seas of 8 to 9
ft. Seas in the Gulf of California are to 3 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will end today. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW 
winds may pulse from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes through tonight as the high pressure builds west of 
the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. Gentle 
to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail through the 
rest of the week. A cold front will approach the Baja California 
offshore waters Sat night, then cross into the Gulf of 
California Sun, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and rough 
seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf 
of Papagayo. This gap wind is due to a combination of local 
drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient related to high 
pressure north of the area. Seas within this winds are 5 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to 
moderate. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Fri. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 
15N125W to 29N131W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in 
place over the area N of 15N. Moderate winds are noted N of the 
ITCZ to 14N, and gentle breezes elsewhere N of 15N to 31N under 
the influence of the ridge. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted along the 
ITCZ from 105W to 128W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 
the ITCZ. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across the eastern Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken today. Shorter period 
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell 
propagating across the region. This will maintain seas around 8 
ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds through the 
weekend. By Fri, a cold front will move east of 140W and continue
pushing eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds 
will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front by Sat 
into Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through through
the weekend, with seas to 12 ft likely by Sun.

$$
Konarik