000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200928
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N78W 
to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 02N120W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01N to 07N between 81W and 126W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 06N and W of 138W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area, anchored by a 1021 mb
high pressure near 33N128W. This is supporting mostly light to
gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Mexico offshore 
waters. Off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, moderate NW to N winds 
continue with seas near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
scatterometer data overnight depicted strong northerly winds 
with seas 8 to 9 ft. Seas in the Gulf of California are to 3 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will end this morning. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh 
NW winds may pulse from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes through tonight as the high pressure builds west of 
the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. Gentle 
to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail through the
rest of the week. A cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters later in the weekend, bringing fresh winds and
rough seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds are present across 
the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind event is due to a combination
of local drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient 
related to high pressure north of the area. Seas within this 
winds are 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and 
seas are slight to moderate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted off the coast of Panama and Colombia. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through Fri with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Fri. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from 
15N123W to 27N131W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Moderate winds are east of the trough with
seas to 7 ft near it. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in 
place over the area N of 15N. Moderate winds are noted N of the 
ITCZ to 14N, and gentle breezes elsewhere N of 15N to 31N under 
the influence of the ridge. Seas 7 to 9 ft are noted along the 
ITCZ from 105W to 128W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of
the ITCZ. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across the eastern Pacific 
waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken today with winds and 
seas continuing to diminish slightly around that area. Shorter 
period wind waves created by moderate to fresh swell along and 
north of the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period 
NW swell propagating across the region. This will maintain 
seas around 8 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds 
through the weekend. By Fri, a cold front will move east of 140W
and continue pushing eastward through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold 
front by Sat into Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front
through Sun, with seas to 12 ft expected later in the weekend.

$$
AReinhart