000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200350
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building 
across the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern, along with local 
drainage flow effects, will support gap winds to minimal gale 
force to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening into
early Wed morning. Expect sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt
during this time, with seas building as high as 10 ft downstream
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed. Conditions will
improve by Wed afternoon. 

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the 
websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W
to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 01N120W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N
to 07N between 88W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 05N between 105W and 140W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to coast of Michoacan. This pattern
is supporting moderate NW to N winds funneling off Cabo 
Corrientes, but maintaining gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere 
across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas 
prevail everywhere, except slight seas in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, 
near-gale to gale force gap are ongoing over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a building high pressure in the Gulf
of Mexico. The gale force winds will end early Wed morning, with
the strong winds and associated rough seas diminishing across 
the area by Wed afternoon. Farther north, moderate to fresh NW 
winds may pulse from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes tonight as the high pressure builds west of the region
and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail from mid to late week 
across the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to locally moderate NE to E gap winds are present across 
the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind event is due to a combination
of local drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient 
related to high pressure north of the area. Seas within this 
winds are 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and 
seas are slight to moderate. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through the end of the week with locally rough seas.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf
of Panama through the end of the week. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the forecast 
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the Pacific high seas from 13N127W to
25N136W. No significant convection is noted with this feature at
this time. Moderate winds are east of the trough with seas to 8
ft near it. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in place over the
area N of 15N. Moderate winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 15N, and
gentle breezes elsewhere N of 15N to 31N under the influence of 
the ridge. Seas 7 to 9 ft are noted along the ITCZ from 108W to
126W. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas
range 5 to 7 ft across the eastern Pacific waters. 

For the forecast, the trough will weaken through Wednesday with 
winds and seas diminishing slightly around that area. Shorter 
period wind waves created by moderate to fresh swell along and 
north of the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period 
NW swell propagating across the region to maintain around 8 ft 
combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds 
through mid week. By the end of the week, a cold front will 
likely move over our NW corner. Behind the cold front, N winds 
will increase to fresh to strong with seas to 8 ft.

$$
AReinhart