000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2118 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building 
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. This 
pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will support gap
winds to minimal gale force to pulse across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this evening into Wed morning. Expect sustained 
winds to briefly reach 35 kt during this times, with seas 
building as high as 9 ft downstream across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through early Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N84W to 05N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N99W to 04N120W to 03N140W. Numerous 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 82W and 
88W. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 07N 
between 96W and 108W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to coast of Michoacan. This pattern
is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds funneling off Cabo
Corrientes, but maintaining gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere
across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas 
prevail everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, 
near-gale to gale force gap are ongoing over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico. Winds will pulse to gale force again tonight. These gap 
winds and associated rough seas will diminish across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Wed afternoon. Farther north, moderate to fresh 
NW winds may pulse from the central Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes this afternoon and tonight as the high pressure 
builds west of the region and low pressure deepens over central 
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail 
from mid to late week across the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf 
of Papagayo. This gap wind event is due to a combination of local
drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient related to high
pressure north of the area. Seas within this winds are 4 to 6 
ft. Elsewhere seas 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through the end of the week with locally rough seas. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere 
through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1013 mb broad area of low pressure is located near 24N132W. 
This low is associated with a broad, negatively tilted mid to 
upper level trough reaching from north of the region, where 
related divergent flow aloft continue to support clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms southeast of the center of the low 
pressure, from 21N to 23N between 126W and 127W. Broad surface 
ridging is in place elsewhere north of 20N, supporting mostly 
gentle breezes across the region, except for moderate trade wind 
flow over tropical waters from 05N to 13N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft 
covers most of the region west of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the 
area of moderate trade winds, and farther south of the equator 
where a component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas
of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident in the area.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the 
surface trough will continue to move eastward tonight and 
weaken, with winds moderate to fresh along 140W and north of 23N.
The low may linger through tonight before weakening and opening 
to a trough. Shorter period wind waves created by moderate to 
fresh swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix with the longer
period NW swell propagating across the region to maintain around 8
ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds 
through mid week. By the end of the week a cold front will likely  
move over our NW corner. Behind the cold front N winds will
increase to fresh to strong with seas to 8 ft.

$$
KRV