652 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building 
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. This 
pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will support gap
winds to minimal gale force to pulse across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into early Tue morning, and again Tue evening into 
Wed morning. Expect sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt during
this times, with seas building as high as 10 ft downstream 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 04N95W to 03N100W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 02N115W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 82W and 
92W, and from 06N to 08N between 104W and 107W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to coast of Michoacan. This pattern
is supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds funneling off Cabo 
Corrientes, but maintaining gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere across
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas prevail 
everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, 
near-gale to gale force gap are ongoing over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico. Winds will pulse to gale force again tonight. These gap 
winds and associated rough seas will diminish across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by late Wed. Farther north, moderate to fresh NW 
winds may pulse from the central Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes today as the high pressure builds west of the region 
and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail from mid to late week
across the region.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

An earlier scatterometer data confirmed the presence moderate to
fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind 
event is due to a combination of local drainage effects and a 
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Seas within this winds are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere seas 3 to 
5 ft seas prevail except, seas to 8 ft persist close to the south
of the offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through mid week with locally rough seas. Light to gentle
winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the 
forecast period. Farther south, southerly swell reaching 8 ft 
will persist through this evening from offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb broad area of low pressure is located near 23N136W. 
This low is associated with a broad, negatively tilted mid to 
upper level trough reaching from northwest of the region, where 
related divergent flow aloft continue to support clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms southeast of the center of the low 
pressure, from 18N to 23N between 125W and 133W. Earlier 
scatterometer data depicted localized near- gale force to gale 
winds in this area of convection. Broad surface ridging is in 
place elsewhere north of 20N, supporting mostly gentle breezes 
across the region, except for moderate trade wind flow over 
tropical waters from 08N to 16N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft covers 
most of the region west of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the area of
moderate trade winds, and farther south of the equator where a 
component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas of 5 to
7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident east of 105W.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the 
surface trough will continue to move eastward today and weaken, 
with winds moderate to fresh along 140W and north of 20N. The 
low may linger through tonight before weakening and opening to a
trough. Shorter period wind waves created by moderate to fresh 
swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix with the longer 
period NW swell propagating across the region to maintain 8 to 9 
ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds 
through mid week. Farther south, the southerly swell will subside
tonight.

$$
Christensen