000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180932
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build 
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico early this 
week. This pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will 
support gap winds to minimal gale force across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Tue evening into early Wed morning. Expect 
sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt during this time, with 
seas building as high as 10 ft downstream across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N95W to 04N120W to 05N130W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the
trough between 85W and 90W, and within 90 nm either side of the 
ITCZ between 105W and 1110W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to off Cabo Corrientes. Recent
scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NW 
winds across the central and southern Gulf of California, 
funneling between this ridge and lower pressure over central 
Mexico. Elsewhere, this pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
breezes across the offshore waters of Mexico. A recent altimeter
satellite pass indicated mainly moderate combined seas prevail 
everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, strong
to near- gale force gap will start tonight over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico, and will reach gale force Tue night. These gap winds and 
associated rough seas will diminish across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by late Wed. Farther north, expect moderate to fresh 
NW winds from the central Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes 
to persist through Tue as the high pressure builds west of the 
region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. These winds 
will diminish through late Tue.
 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh gap winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo, a 
combination of local drainage effects and a relatively tight 
gradient related to high pressure north of the area. Seas are 3 
to 5 ft north of 05N, and 5 to 7 ft primarily in southerly swell.
A recent altimeter pass indicated seas to 8 ft persist close to 
the south of the offshore waters around the Galapagos in the 
southern swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region into early Tue, then possibly returning Wed. Light to
gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through
the forecast period. Farther south, southerly swell reaching
8 ft will persist through late Mon from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1012 mb low pressure remains mostly stationary near 25N140W. A 
few showers and thunderstorms are evident with in 90 nm to the 
southeast of the low center. This low is associated with a broad,
negatively tilted mid to upper level trough reaching from 
northwest of the region to roughly over 15N115W, where related 
divergent flow aloft continue to support a small cluster of 
showers and thunderstorms. Broad surface ridging is in place 
north of 25N, supporting mostly gentle breezes across the region,
except for moderate trade wind flow over tropical waters from 
08N to 15N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft covers most of the region west 
of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the area of moderate trade winds, 
near the low at 23N140W, and farther south of the equator where a
component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas of 5 
to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident east of 105W.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the 
surface trough will move eastward today, with winds increasing 
to fresh along 140W and north of 27N. The low may linger through 
the early part of the week before weakening and opening to a 
trough. Shorter period wind waves created by moderate to fresh 
swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix with the longer 
period NW swell propagating across the region to maintain 8 to 9
ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds
through mid week. Farther south, the southerly swell will subside
into mid week as well.

$$
Christensen