000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N93W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
from 02N to 10N between 83W and 128W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure centered N of the area is maintaining 
gentle to moderate breezes across the offshore waters of Mexico.
Slight to moderate combined seas prevail everywhere.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds to develop 
across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula and from 
the central Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes beginning 
tonight through Tue as the high pressure builds west of the 
region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. These winds 
will diminish through late Tue. Farther south, fresh to strong 
gap will start by late Mon over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
associated with a cold front moving into southern Mexico. The 
fresh to strong gap winds and associated rough seas will diminish
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Divergence aloft associated with and upper low centered north of
the Galapagos Islands is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms from 03N-08N. Farther north, fresh gap winds 
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo, a combination of local 
drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient related to high 
pressure north of the area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 05N, and 
5 to 7 ft primarily in southerly swell. Latest altimeter 
pass indicated seas to 8 ft are very close to the south of the 
offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region through late Mon, then possibly returning Wed night.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere
through the forecast period. Farther south, southerly swell
reaching 8 ft will persist through late Mon from offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N139W to 29N140W. Waveheights up to
8 ft accompany this trough, primarily due to NW swell 
propagating into the region. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft 
elsewhere due to an earlier group of NW swell lingering over the 
region mainly west of 115W. A component of southerly swell is 
mixing with the NW swell south of 05N between 90W and 100W.  

For the forecast, low pressure W of the area along the surface 
trough will move E through Mon, with winds increasing to fresh 
along 140W and north of 27N. The low may linger through the early
part of the week before weakening and opening to a trough. The 
NW swell to 8 ft will persist north of 10N and west of 130W 
tonight, gradually decaying thereafter except mixing with 
moderate trade from 05N to 15N west of 110W to maintain combined 
seas in excess of 8 ft Mon and Tue.


$$
ERA